Voodoo science and the only vote that counts.

29 Jun 2024
Voodoo mask



This election has been characterised by relative stability in public opinion. The two main parties, afraid to say anything that might scare their base, have failed to really connect with the voters

 

Smaller parties such as Reform and the Liberal Democrat’s have seen some uptick in national support with many voters still undecided where to finally place their vote.

 

In the absence of passionate debate and significant difference between the two main parties on policy the media have filled the news gap with an explosion in MRP polls which claim to forecast the result of all constituencies nationally 

 

The polls are based on the idea that you take a national sample of voters and capture their demographic details ( age,sex economic status etc) . To produce forecasts by seat you then look at the demographics of that seat, how it voted in 2019 and apply the national proportions polled to that seat.

 

It all sounds very scientific and convincing but the approach is not really proven. In the 2019 election similar polls projected everything from a hung Parliament to a big Tory majority  

 

When you recall national polls have remained pretty stable MRP poll have forecast Labour seat numbers varying between 368 and 534 and the Lib Dem’s between 23 and 73 ; very wide variations when you consider that stability

 

The bigger weakness is the modelling assumes a unified national swing and that local campaigning has no impact on the final results in particular seats. No one believes that is the case. All parties target their activists to seats where they can make a difference because they know local campaigning can make a big difference.

 

This is well illustrated by the Survation MRP survey published over the weekend which forecast the Liberal Democrat’s would finish 5th in the North Shropshire seat despite winning the same seat in a famous by election and being local favourites to retain it next Thursday.

 

What does it mean for us here on South Suffolk?

 

Travelling around the constituency it is quit clear only the Conservatives and Liberal Democrat’s are actively campaigning locally. Labour and the Greens are quite understandably sending their activists to nearby seats that are more winnable for them.

 

Last year when the District elections were held in Babergh South Suffolk it was the Liberal Democrat’s that saw the biggest increase in the share of the votes. Labour actually finished up with less council seats than before. This was the last time voters gave their verdict in significant elections

 

 For all those that want to see the back of our Tory MP when it comes to casting real votes we hope you will vote for Tom Bartleet. In this campaign it is Tom that has demonstrated the energy and desire to be your local representative in parliament 

 

Help him in that crusade!

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